• 中文核心期刊
  • CSCD来源期刊
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • CA、CABI、ZR收录期刊

京津冀农产品冷链物流需求影响因素及预测模型研究

Logistic Demands and Forecasting of Agriculture Cold Chain Serving Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 采用定性分析和定量统计相结合的方法研究农产品冷链物流需求的影响因素,并在此基础上分别建立基于灰色模型、支持向量机、BP神经网络、RBF神经网络、遗传神经网络的农产品冷链物流需求预测模型。通过研究模型对变量之间相关关系的刻画能力及预测精度两方面因素,发现五类模型分析农产品冷链物流需求问题的能力排序为:遗传神经网络模型> RBF神经网络模型> BP神经网络模型>支持向量机模型>灰色模型,这一结果表明遗传神经网络用于农产品冷链物流需求分析具有优越性。

     

    Abstract: Understanding the demands on the logistics of an agricultural product cold chain is essential for appropriate planning, investment, and development of the system, which is unique and complex in operation. A specifically designed program is needed to accurately forecast the demands for an adequate and effective system management. This study applied a qualitative analysis and evaluated with statistical data on factors that might affect the logistics. Subsequently, forecasting models based on the grey model, support vector machine, BP neural network, RBF neural network, and genetic neural network were constructed. By challenging the models on the ability to characterize and correlate the variables as well as predict the outcomes, the following ranking was obtained:genetic neural network > RBF neural network > BP neural network > support vector machine > gray model.

     

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