Abstract:
Objective The temporal/spatial evolution and vulnerability to reversal of the remarkably accomplished poverty alleviation program in China were analyzed using the experience in Fujian as a reference to the national goal of total poverty eradication in the country by 2020.
Method A multi-dimensional vulnerability evaluation system embracing the aspects of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability of economically destitute population to poverty was established. And, based on the geographical perspective using the GIS technology, data and visual presentation were made available to analyze the vulnerability of 67 counties and cities in the province from 2012 to 2016 in returning to poverty after successful implementation of the alleviation program.
Result (1) Over all, the vulnerability to the reoccurrence of economic destitution in the surveyed areas lessened in those 4 years. A significant decline occurred in the high vulnerability category, from 65.7% to 31.8%, although the moderate vulnerability segment increased from 23.9% to 56.1%, and the low vulnerability rose from 10.4% to 12.1%. (2)There were significant dynamic spatial changes taken place during the same period as well. In terms of space, the high vulnerability category was of "fragmentation-connection" type, the moderate vulnerability, "agglomeration-continuous", and the low vulnerability, "contraction-connection." (3) There were significant correlations between the vulnerability and the value increase of primary industry, investment in fixed assets, per capita land area, electricity consumption in rural regions, number of beds in health facilities, and proportion of farming population living below the minimum standard.
Conclusion The vulnerability of the poor in the regions in Fujian to reverse back into destitution after being lifted out of poverty still existed, both temporally and spatially, despite the alleviation efforts. However, it was more commonly observed at the high and moderate categories, and, at the low level, only in some coastal metropolitan cities.The roots and mechanism behind the reversing outcome were multi-dimensional. To achieve a sustainable result, efforts would necessarily be focused on localities of high and moderate vulnerability categories to implement measures specifically designed for the identified deficiencies with an early warning system to prevent the return of poverty.