• 中文核心期刊
  • CSCD来源期刊
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • CA、CABI、ZR收录期刊

福建省返贫脆弱性的时空演变特征与产生机制

Temporal/Spatial Evolution and Vulnerability of Return-to-Poverty After Successful Implementation of Alleviation Program in Fujian

  • 摘要:
      目的  当前,中国扶贫工作取得了显著成效,2020年现行标准下农村贫困人口将全面脱贫。在此背景下,伴随着高脱贫率的返贫现象引起了政府和学术界的高度关注,然而目前鲜有揭示返贫脆弱性时空格局的研究成果。论文探究福建省67个县(市、区)在2012-2016年期间的返贫脆弱性的时空分异与产生机制,为精准识别重点扶贫对象、制定针对性强的有效措施提供科学参考。
      方法  论文从暴露性、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建多维返贫脆弱性评价指标体系,并基于地理学视角与GIS技术手段进行返贫脆弱性测度和可视化表达。
      结果  (1)福建省的返贫脆弱性程度整体降低,不同返贫脆弱性等级呈现不同的态势,高返贫脆弱性从65.7%下降至31.8%,中返贫脆弱性从23.9%提高至56.1%,低返贫脆弱性从10.4%提高至12.1%。(2)其空间范围也具有明显的动态变化。高返贫脆弱性在空间上表现为"破碎-连接",中返贫脆弱性表现为"集聚-连片",低返贫脆弱性总体呈现"收缩-连接"态势;(3)第一产业增长值、固定资产投资额、人均土地面积、农村用电量、卫生机构床位数和农村居民最低生活保障人数比例与返贫脆弱性显著相关。
      结论  福建省的返贫脆弱性具有时间和空间维度的动态性,中、高返贫脆弱性普遍存在,低返贫脆弱性仅集中在部分沿海都市区,且返贫脆弱性的产生机制具有多维特征。未来实现可持续稳定脱贫,要重点关注中、高返贫脆弱性地区,将脆弱性等级识别和精准举措紧密对应,并加强返贫预警。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  The temporal/spatial evolution and vulnerability to reversal of the remarkably accomplished poverty alleviation program in China were analyzed using the experience in Fujian as a reference to the national goal of total poverty eradication in the country by 2020.
      Method  A multi-dimensional vulnerability evaluation system embracing the aspects of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability of economically destitute population to poverty was established. And, based on the geographical perspective using the GIS technology, data and visual presentation were made available to analyze the vulnerability of 67 counties and cities in the province from 2012 to 2016 in returning to poverty after successful implementation of the alleviation program.
      Result  (1) Over all, the vulnerability to the reoccurrence of economic destitution in the surveyed areas lessened in those 4 years. A significant decline occurred in the high vulnerability category, from 65.7% to 31.8%, although the moderate vulnerability segment increased from 23.9% to 56.1%, and the low vulnerability rose from 10.4% to 12.1%. (2)There were significant dynamic spatial changes taken place during the same period as well. In terms of space, the high vulnerability category was of "fragmentation-connection" type, the moderate vulnerability, "agglomeration-continuous", and the low vulnerability, "contraction-connection." (3) There were significant correlations between the vulnerability and the value increase of primary industry, investment in fixed assets, per capita land area, electricity consumption in rural regions, number of beds in health facilities, and proportion of farming population living below the minimum standard.
      Conclusion  The vulnerability of the poor in the regions in Fujian to reverse back into destitution after being lifted out of poverty still existed, both temporally and spatially, despite the alleviation efforts. However, it was more commonly observed at the high and moderate categories, and, at the low level, only in some coastal metropolitan cities.The roots and mechanism behind the reversing outcome were multi-dimensional. To achieve a sustainable result, efforts would necessarily be focused on localities of high and moderate vulnerability categories to implement measures specifically designed for the identified deficiencies with an early warning system to prevent the return of poverty.

     

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