Objective Potential distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus in China under the changing climatic conditions was analyzed to aid monitoring the pest movement, issuing early warning, implementing preventive measures, and controlling the infestation at tea plantations.

Methods The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were employed to predict the areas and conditions of the spread of A. spiniferus in China. The Jackknife method was used to calculate the main environmental variables affecting the pest distribution.

Results The AUC of the MaxEnt model prediction was highly reliable at 0.894. The major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of A. spiniferus calculated by Jackknife were the annual average temperature (bio1), annual average precipitation (bio12), and precipitation in the driest month (bio14). Populations of A. spiniferus were likely to be found in most provinces of China under the perceivable scenarios on climate. The highly suitable habitats for the pests were in the provinces south of the Huaihe River in Mt. Qinling with a gradually decreasing trend northward in the region. At present, the total area in China suitable for spread of A. spiniferus was 2.7749 million km², which is 27.43 % of the country’s entirety. Of which, 1.1621 million km² was highly suitable, which accounted for 41.88% of the total national land mass.

Conclusion The foreseeable changes on climate might shift the A. spiniferus populations to the most part of China northward with a minute increase on the “suitable area”. In general, the natural distribution of the pests appeared to be stable in long-term. Nonetheless, to closely monitor the movement for early warning, timely prevention, and effective control on the pest was indispensable to avoid major infestation on tea plants.