Objective Key environmental factors shaping the geographic distribution and probable habiting areas in China under the forecast climatic conditions of Toxoptera aurantii Böyer de Fonscolombe were identified for better pest control management.

Methods Using MaxEnt model and based on the past records on the spread of tea aphids and validated environmental variables, patterns of T. aurantii population distribution under current and two predicted climate scenarios for the period between 2041 and 2060 were constructed.

Results A satisfactory mean area under curve of 0.872 in predicting pest distribution was obtained on the MaxEnt model using the data from existing records. At present, the total area in China suitable for T. aurantii habitation was approximately 3.30×10⁶ km². It is primarily located in the east, central, south, and most of the southwest, accounting for 34.38% of the nation’s terrestrial territory. The major environmental determinants for the infestation included temperature-related variables, e.g., range of annual temperature and minimum temperature in the coldest month, and precipitation-related annual and precipitations in the driest month.

Conclusion To date, T. aurantii already spread wide in the country. The coverage area was highly possible to further disperse in the years to come. By 2041-2060, the projected total habitable area for the pest insects under two forecast climate scenarios was to expand, especially in northeastward and southwestward directions. Consequently, timely upgrading the early warning system and formulating an effective control strategy would be crucial to safeguard sustainable and healthy development of the nation’s tea industry.