Characteristics of and Factors Affecting Garlic Price Fluctuations in Shandong

GARCH-M and E-GARCH models were employed to analyze thevolatility of market price of garlics in Shandong Province from January 2006 to May 2016. The principal component regression analysis was applied to determine the major factors that affected the price fluctuations in 2003-2015. The results showed that the garlic price fluctuated(a) in a so-called "leptokurtosis, abnormal" characteristic with lasting presences; (b) with significant agglomeration and asymmetricity on the effect of market information, a downward trend brought about much greater impact on price than an upward one; and (c) with high risk as well as high return for the business. In 2003-2015, the F1 mixed factor played a fundamental role, while the F2 yield factor exerted a dominant effect, on the market. The garlic price was dictated by the supply and demand, operational costs and other macro factors. The production volume, planting area and exportation of garlics in the province were the most important elements that drove the market movements.